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Market Overview . . .

Individuals new to the futures markets often ask for a general overview of the markets we actively trade. This section will introduce the markets we monitor and trade providing a general market description, seasonal tendencies, contract months, exchange, trading hours and market volatility.

The sections below are categorized alphabetically by sector.

Currencies Interest Rates
Energies Meats
Grains Metals
Indices Softs

Currencies :

Dollar Index:

Market/Symbol:
U.S. Dollar Index (DX)

Contract Months:
March, June, September and December

Exchange:
New York Board of Trade (NYBT)

Trading Hours (ET):
8:05 am - 3:00 pm
7:00 pm- 10:00 pm
3:00 am - 8:05 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$1000

Market Overview:
The dollar index is a basket of 6 currencies rolled into a single contract. The currencies that comprise the dollar index include the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. The currency weighting was originally based on the dollar verses the 10 currencies in 1973 prior to the formation of the Euro. At that time the index (set at 100) was formed from Germany, Japan, France, U.K, Canada, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden and Switzerland. If the dollar index was valued at 108, then the dollar is 8 percent greater then the value of the 10 original currencies back in 1973. On the flip side, if the dollar were priced at 85 then it would be valued at a 15 percent discount.

Other Factors:
Despite the low liquidity of the dollar index, it offers traders an excellent trending market with relatively low volatility.


Major World Currencies:

Market/Symbol:
Australian Dollar (AD)
Canadian Dollar (CD)
Euro-Currency (EC) 
Japanese Yen (JY)
Swiss Franc (SF)

Contract Months:
March, June, September and December

Exchange:
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

Trading Hours (ET):
8:20 am - 3:00 pm
3:30 pm - 8:05 am

Dollar Value per Point:
Australian Dollar $100,000
Canadian Dollar $100,000
Euro-Currency $125,000
Japanese Yen $125,000
Swiss Franc $125,000

 

Market Overview:
Futures contracts can be traded on a variety of currencies, most of which are found on the International Monetary Market (IMM) which is associated with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The currency markets are affected by inflation rates, balance of trade, interest rates, government regulations and economic growth rates. LexAM tracks and trades a variety of currency markets including the Eurocurrency, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. These markets are extremely liquid and offer general portfolios added diversification.

Certain currencies such as the Euro-Currency, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc offer prolonged trending opportunities well suited for LexAM’s trading systems.

Other Factors:
The currencies listed above trade directly against the U.S. Dollar. However these currencies can also trade against one another offering LexAM additional trading opportunities in what is called "cross rates."

Cross Rates include:

  • Euro/Swiss
  • Euro/Pound
  • Euro/ Yen
  • Euro/Ausi
  • Pound/Swiss
  • Pound/Yen
  • Swiss/Yen

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Energies :

Crude Oil:

Market/Symbol:
Crude Oil (CL)

Contract Months:
Consecutive months

Exchange:
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:00 am - 2:30 pm
3:15 pm - 9:30 am

Dollar Value per Point:
Crude Oil $1,000

Market Overview:
Many countries around the globe produce and consume crude oil. The largest producers are Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico, Russia and the US. Other large producers include Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait. These countries keep a high profile in the industry due to the fact that they are large net exporters of the commodity. The largest consumer of crude oil is the U.S.

Crude oil is valued for the products that are derived from the oil (gasoline and heating oil) and is therefore considered a commodity complex. (See the unleaded gas and heating oil section below for more details).

Seasonal Nature:
The price of crude oil will be determined mainly by the supply and demand of the products that it yields, namely heating oil and gasoline. Since the demand for heating oil is seasonal, stocks will also be seasonal. Demand for heating oil is greatest in the winter, and therefore stocks will be at there largest in the months leading up to the cold winter, mainly October and November. Extremely cold winters result in faster depletion of stocks and higher demand, which in turn means higher prices.

The demand for gasoline is also seasonal. The so-called "driving" months of summer represent the peak demand season for gasoline. For this reason, stocks will be at their highest in April and May and will be at their lowest in September and October. [More]

Other Factors:
Crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange is often referred to as light sweet crude oil. Below are some definitions to clarify the differences in oil types.

  • Light Crude: A low-density crude oil with gravities greater than 35 degrees. Density is measured in terms of gravity, which is determined by the American Petroleum Institute and is quoted in terms of degrees.
  • Sweet Crude: A low-sulfur crude oil that contains less than .5 percent sulfur by weight. Crude oil with high levels of sulfur content are called "Sour."

>>> Click here for an historic review of Crude Oil.

Heating Oil & Gas Oil:

Market/Symbol:
Heating Oil (HO)  

Contract Months:
Consecutive months

Exchange:
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:05 am - 2:30 pm
3:15 pm - 9:30 am

Dollar Value per Point:
Heating Oil $42,000

Market Overview:
Gasoline accounts for the largest proportion of refinery output. This is why many of the recent technological advances in refinery processes have been made to increase the quantity and quality of the gasoline output. Gasoline is used almost entirely for transportation, mainly by passenger cars and trucks. In general, there are four grades of gasoline: regular leaded, regular unleaded, premium leaded and premium unleaded. Unleaded Gas will tend to move with the rest of the energy complex. The summer tends to be peak demand for gasoline.

Heating oil, also known as No. 2 fuel oil, accounts for about 25% of the yield of a barrel of crude, the second largest "cut" after gasoline. It is used by many Americans to heat their homes. Historically, heating oil prices have fluctuated from year to year and month to month, generally higher during the winter months when demand is higher.

Seasonal Nature:
The demand for gasoline is primarily dependent on two factors: weather and consumer habits. Not surprisingly, gasoline prices tend to rise during the "summer driving" months. The global warming epidemic is continuously inflating gasoline consumption throughout the summer, due to the fact that automobile air conditioners reduce fuel efficiency. But by late May, refiners are usually running at capacity and inventories have peaked. The beginning of the driving season acts as an antagonist to gasoline prices. Once prices peak, they are often followed by a large drop.

Heating Oil distributors start to build inventory in March through May. They need to purchase Heating Oil for distribution before the public starts to buy it. Therefore, prices have historically been strongest well before the cold snaps hit. By October, however, Heating Oil distributors own all the product they need, and they are worrying about selling their inventory! This causes them to run specials and have very little appetite for buying more. [More]

Other Factors:
Crack Spread: The crude oil-gasoline-heating oil relationship. Refiners produce or buy crude oil and sell the petroleum products. The crack spread defines the value added by the refining operation. As a point of reference, the 5-3-2 spread reflects 5 barrels of crude to produce 3 barrels of gasoline and 2 barrels of heating oil

Natural Gas:

Market/Symbol:
Natural Gas (NG)

Contract Months:
Consecutive months

Exchange:
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:00 am - 2:30 pm
3:15 pm - 9:30 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$10,000

Market Overview:
The United States, Russian Republics, Canada, Mexico, Italy and Venezuela are the largest producers of Natural Gas. Virtually all countries that produce natural gas consume it domestically. In recent years, more efficient means to find and extract Natural Gas have been developed which will certainly affect supplies for this finite resource in the coming years. It should also be noted that it is extremely difficult to transport Natural Gas to the U.S. from countries other than Canada and Mexico. Therefore, price levels should increase within the U.S. as supplies decrease and demand levels increase.

This clean burning fuel is used for both heating and electric generation purposes. In the winter months, residential demand is high, while in the summer months industrial demand is high. This constant demand suggests little or no seasonal tendency for natural gas, unlike other fuel contracts.

Propane is a by-product of natural gas processing and oil refining. U.S. demand is approximately one-third that of heating oil. Propane is used in diverse markets such as residential cooking, crop-drying in agriculture, space heating in homes and industry, and as a feedstock for the production of vital petrochemicals. Natural gas utilities often store propane for use during periods of peak demand. [More]

Other Factors:
Natural gas accounts for almost a quarter of total US energy consumption. Industrial users and electric utilities together account for 59% of the market; commercial and residential users combined are 42%. Market share is largely determined by how favorably gas can compete in relation to other fuels, and by the tightening environmental standards for fuel combustion.

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Grains :

Corn:

Market/Symbol:
Corn (C)

Contract Months:
March, May, July, September
and December.

Exchange:
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:30 am - 2:15 pm
9:30 pm - 7:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$50

Market Overview:
The United States is the largest producer of corn with the Midwest states specifically Illinois and Iowa leading the way in production. Livestock including hogs, cattle and poultry are the primary consumes of corn supplies. Corn is planted in the spring and harvested in the fall. Of all the grain related futures markets it is by far the most active. As a market corn generates both long and intermediate term trends which lends itself to Landmarks systematic trading style.

Seasonal Nature:
The low in corn prices are typical set during the fall at harvest when there is an abundance of supply. Prices typical rise to higher levels prior to planting in the spring. Price levels are affected by weather especially during the summer growing season around late June and July.

Prices usually rise following harvest. However, the "February Break" is a well-known phenomenon whereby corn prices usually show some degree of decline during the month of February. [More]

Other Factors:
Livestock levels can affect corn demand. Low levels of hogs, cattle and poultry translate into lower demand for corn while higher livestock levels will generate an increase in demand.


Wheats (CBOT & KCBT):

Market/Symbol:
CBOT Wheat (W)
KCBT Wheat (KW)

Contract Months:
March, May, July, September
and December.

Exchange:
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:30 am - 2:15 pm
9:30 pm - 7:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
CBOT Wheat $50
KCBT Wheat $50

Market Overview:
The Russian Republic's, United States and China are the largest producers of wheat. Virtually all countries that produce wheat use it domestically with the exception of the U.S. and Canada which export their reserves. There are two primary wheat futures traded on two different exchanges; Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). These two wheat contracts are both considered winter wheat since they are planted in the fall and harvested in mid summer. CBOT wheat a lower end soft red wheat is used in pastries, cakes and cookies and other related products. KCBT is a hard red wheat valued for its high protein levels. It is primarily exported and used in the production of bread related products. CBOT wheat is more liquid and actively traded then is the KCBT wheat contract. However the trends in KCBT wheat are slightly less volatile then the CBOT wheat contract. This smoother trend translates into better trading results for the KCBT wheat trading systems.

Seasonal Nature:
Historically the wheat market experiences significant declines around the end of May, and continues into the beginning of July. May brings wheat into what they call the "heading" stage, during which time the crop is most vulnerable to weather related damage. Prior to heading, wheat prices escalate due to fear of crop damage. Once the crop has completed the heading process in tact, prices typically decline. [More]

Other Factors:
Since the United States is the largest exporter of wheat (KCBT Wheat) a strong dollar can adversely affect wheat exports.


Soybean Sector:

Market/Symbol:
Soybeans (S)
Soybean Meal (SM)
Bean Oil (BO)

Contract Months:
March, May, July, September
and December.

Exchange:
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:30 am - 2:15 pm
9:30 pm - 7:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
(S) $50
(SM) $100
(BO) $600

Market Overview:
The U.S. is the leading producer of soybeans followed by Brazil and China. For the most part this crop is crown in the Corn Belt which consists of Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Minnesota. General it is planted in April and June but it can be delayed if necessary. For this reason Soybeans can be used as an alternative crop for Corn and Cotton when weather effects the planting of other crops. Harvesting is generally complete by October.

The Chicago Board of Trade lists three soybean related futures contacts; Soybeans, Soybean Meal and Bean Oil. Soybeans in reality are not truly a grain but rather a oilseed. Soybean, the cash crop or base product, is grown to yield Soybean Meal or Bean Oil.

  • Soybean Meal is used to enrich the fed for hogs, cattle and poultry.
  • Bean Oil is used in food related products like shortening, salad dressings and cooking oils.

Of the two by-products Soybean Meal is the more valuable. Unfortunately it cannot be stored for extended periods making its price more volatile.

Seasonal Nature:
The July-August period is usually a bearish time for soybeans. Closing prices during the last week in July are usually lower than those of the previous week in July. Closing prices at the end of August are also usually lower than those at the end of July. Also, soybean prices in late January are usually higher than those in late December. Soybeans many times also succumb to the "February Break" seasonally phenomenon.

In general, Bean Oil prices see progressive weakness beginning in late spring and continuing into fall due to the soybean harvest and large supplies of bean oil. Soybean oil prices usually peak in the beginning of May as a result of Midwestern planting concerns, and dwindling supplies of the old crop. A successful planting season in the U.S., along with South American crops close to harvest and impervious to damage, tends to send soy complex prices plummeting. The most prominent dip normally occurs from May to mid June. The downtrend seasonally continues, but is somewhat choppy due to panic spikes. [More]

Other Factors:
"Beans in the Teens" is a phrase often quoted when soybeans make extended rallies.


Oats:

Market/Symbol:
Oats (O)

Contract Months:
March, May, July, September
and December.

Exchange:
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:30 am - 2:15 pm
9:30 pm - 7:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$50

Market Overview:
Oats are primarily used as animal feed and consumed for the most part on the farm which they are grown. Oats are excellent for feeding horses and, due to their high protein levels, are perfect for young breading animals. Only a small amount (about 5 percent) of the oats crop is used for human consumption. Rolled oats are used in human foods such as oatmeal and other cereals.

Russia is the worlds leading producer followed by the U.S., West Germany, Canada, and Poland. Most of the oats grown in the U.S. are grown in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Oats are planted in the spring and harvested in mid to late summer.

Other Factors:
Although the size of oats production is large, they are thinly traded. Trading is often controlled by a few large trade houses, and therefore, its response to small speculative activity may be greater than desired to the newer trader.


Rough Rice:

Market/Symbol:
Rough Rice (RR)

Contract Months:
January, March, May, July, September, November.

Exchange:
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:15 am - 2:30 pm
9:30 pm - 7:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$2000

Market Overview:
Rice, the world's second most popular foodstuff after wheat, is generally consumed where it is produced with less than 10% of world production moving into world trade. Asia accounts for most of the world's exports. Thailand is the largest exporter with Vietnam the second largest exporter. The U.S. generally ranks third among the world's top exporters.

Rice has been produced in the U.S. since the late 17th century. Today, six states produce more than 99% of all rice grown in America - Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.

Importing nations are numerous, with Indonesia consistently the largest importer. On a regional basis, the Middle East tends to be the largest importer, notably Iran. For U.S. rice exports, the Western hemisphere is the primary destination and is generally higher priced than Asian rice.


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Indices :

Domestic lndices:

Market/Symbol:
S&P 500 Index (SP)
Dow Jones (DJ)
Nasdaq (NQ/ND)
Russell 200 (RL)

Contract Months:
March, June, September
and December.

Exchanges:
Chicago Mercantile Exch. (CME)
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

Trading Hours (ET):
(SP) 9:30 am - 4:15 pm
(SP) 4:45 pm - 9:15 am

(DJ) 9:30 am - 4:15 pm
(DJ) 8:15 pm - 8:00 am

(NQ) 9:30 am - 4:15 pm
(NQ) 4:45 pm - 9:15 am

(RL) 9:30 am - 4:15 pm
(RL) 4:45 pm - 9:15 am

Dollar Value per Point:
(SP) $250
(DJ) $10
(NQ) $100
(RL) $500

Market Overview:
The S&P 500 Stock Index is designed to be an accurate proxy of the stock market and is the benchmark by which professionals measure portfolio performance. It is based on the stock prices of 500 large-capitalization companies. The market value of the 500 firms is equal to about 80 percent of the value of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. With the S&P 500, you have exposure to large-cap stocks such as General Motors, Phillip Morris, Microsoft and Coca-Cola with just one trade!

This is THE largest index future of them all, and it is used by the large investment firms hedge their portfolios. The CME has more than 95% market share of all domestically traded stock index futures and options on futures. Open interest in the CME's index complex totals in excess of $93 billion, making it the world's most liquid trading environment for stock index products.

The Other Major Markets:

  • Dow (DJIA) is probably the most well known and most watched market index in the world. It is made of 30 of the largest and most liquid U.S. stocks, many of which have become household names. Trades at the CBOT.
  • The Nasdaq 100 Index is comprised of 100 of the largest domestic, non-financial common stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is often referred to as the "Technology Index." It is comprised of mainly computer, communication, and other technology industry stocks, and is evaluated on a quarterly basis. Trades at the CME.
  • Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 2000 index is capitalization-weighted, and adjustments are made for cross-ownership. For example, if IBM owns 20 percent of Intel, the index includes only 80 percent of Intel's outstanding shares.


German DAX:

Market/Symbol:
German DAX (DAX)

Contract Months:
March, June, September and December.

Exchange:
EUREX

Trading Hours (ET):
2:50 am - 2:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
EUR 12.50

Market Overview:
DAX is the blue chip index of the German stock market, known as Deutsche Borse AG, one of the most efficient markets in Europe. Futures on the DAX index are available for trading at the Swiss-German derivatives exchange, EUREX. With all-electronic DAX futures contracts, EUREX is offering traders around the world a highly liquid instrument for directional trading and hedging of the German equities market.

DAX comprises a selection of 30 blue chip stocks. In June of 2002, the weighting of the DAX index was changed to represent the free-float market capitalization of each component stock. DAX is a performance index, meaning that it is assumed that all income from dividends and bonus distributions are re-invested into the index.

Its value is updated and disseminated every 15 seconds based on prices generated from the electronic trading. The index composition is re-evaluated on an annual basis. However, the index composition can also change during the year under special conditions (i.e. mergers and acquisitions). In short, DAX provides an appropriate instrument to track the growth of the German stock market.

 

Hang Seng:

Market/Symbol:
Hang Seng (HSI)

Contract Months:
January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, and December.

Exchange:
Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE)

Trading Hours (ET):
9:45 pm - 4:15 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$50 HK

Market Overview:
To meet the growing interests in the Hong Kong stock market and rising demand for related hedging tools, the Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE) first introduced Hang Seng futures contracts in May 1986 followed by the introduction of Hang Seng options contracts in March 1993. These contracts provide investors with a set of effective instruments to manage portfolio risk and to capture index arbitrage opportunities. The popularity of Hang Seng futures and options has developed gradually, with increasing domestic and international investors' participation.

Hang Seng Index (HSI), the benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market, is one of the best-known indexes in Asia, and is widely used by fund managers as their performance benchmark.

The Hang Seng Index is a market capitalization-weighted index (shares outstanding multiplied by stock price) of the thirty-three constituent stocks. The influence of each stock on the Index's performance is directly proportional to its relative market value. Constituent stocks with higher market capitalization will have greater impact on the Index's performance than those with lower market capitalization. The thirty-three constituent stocks are grouped under Commerce and Industry, Finance, Properties, and Utilities sub-indices. These stocks account for about 70% of the total market capitalization of all stocks listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd.


Share Price Index:

Market/Symbol:
Share Price Index (SPI)

Contract Months:
March, June, September, and December.

Exchange:
Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE)

Trading Hours (ET):
5:50 PM - 12:30 PM

Dollar Value per Point:
$25 AUS

Market Overview:
SPI 200 Index futures, which are traded at the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), are the benchmark derivative products for investors trading and hedging in the Australian equity index market. SPI (Share Price Index) futures enable you to trade movements in the underlying equity index in a single transaction, thereby allowing exposure to Australia's top 200 companies without having to buy or sell shares in every company in the index.

Australia's equity market is the 12th largest in the world, and the third largest in the Asia Pacific region. The liquidity of the market, as measured by the ratio of turnover to domestic market capitalization, was 80% in mid-2003.

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Interest Rates :

Notes & Bonds:

Market/Symbol:
Five Year T-Notes (FV)
Ten Year T-Notes (TY)
US T-Bond (US)

Contract Months:
March, June, September and December

Exchange:
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

Trading Hours (ET):
8:20 am - 3:00 pm
3:30 pm - 5:30 pm
6:20 pm - 9:05 pm
11:30 pm - 7:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
Five Year T-Notes $1000
Ten Year T-Notes $1000
US T-Bonds $1000


Market Overview:
Each of the three interest rate futures vary in the maturity of the underlying cash instrument and their individual price levels. T-Bonds (US) are based on the US Treasury Bond, which have a maturity time horizon that extends out 30 years. The ten year T-Note (TY) and five year T-Note (FV) as their names suggest have a maturity time horizon of ten and five years respectively. Despite the different maturity's each of these three contracts react to interest rates in a similar manner. As interest rates go up contract price levels go down. Subsequently as interest rates go down contract price levels go up. The Fed and its manipulation of the discount rate, fed funds rate and reserve requirements all effect the direction of interest rates and effectual the price levels of T-Bonds and the two T-Note contracts. The Federal Reserves purchase and sale of government securities also plays an important in the direction of interest rates on a day-to-day bases.


Other Factors:
Expect increased trading and price volatility when the Federal Reserve meets to discuss interest rate levels.


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Meats :

Cattle:

Market/Symbol:
Live Cattle (LC)
Feeder Cattle (FC)

Contract Months:
(LC) February, April, June, August, October and December.

(FC) January, March, April, May, August, September, October and November.

Exchange:
Chicago Mercantile Exch. (CME)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:05 am - 2:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
(LC) $400
(FC) $500


Market Overview:
The price for Steak Au Poivre really isn't set by your favorite steak restaurant, its based on the supply and demand factors within the cattle market. Cattle futures are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The two main contacts consist of Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle.

  • Feeder Cattle: Weaned calves (6 - 10 months) just sent to the feedlot.
  • Live Cattle: Older cattle which have attained a desired weight (heifers 850 - 1000 lbs and steers 1000 - 1200 lbs) to be sold to meat packers.

Although many countries throughout the world raise cattle, India raises more than any other. The U.S. And Russia are also major producers of beef. In the U.S., the 7 major cattle producing states are Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas.

Unlike most grains, cattle are usually consumed in the same country in which they were raised. The U.S. imports a small amount of beef and exports very little. In addition, unlike grains, the production of beef in the U.S. utilizes more land and creates more market value than the production of any other livestock or grain crop.

Seasonal Nature:
Seasonality in feeder cattle prices depends on live cattle prices, along with annual fluctuations in feeder cattle supplies. In general, feeder cattle prices are strong from late winter through spring, drop during the summer, and stabilize at lower levels in the fall, before turning up in December. Live cattle prices normally trend higher from January through May. Prices for live cattle reach their seasonal peak in May and then usually begin a downtrend that extends through the end of the year. Demand for feeder cattle also begins to peak in May, and prices fall into July. [More]

Other Factors:
The Atkins (Low Carb) diet has helped drive the price of cattle up since 2003. Its all about demand.


Hogs:

Market/Symbol:
Lean Hog (LH)

Contract Months:
February, April, May, June, July, August, October and December.

Exchange:
Chicago Mercantile Exch. (CME)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:10 am - 2:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
(LH) $400


Market Overview:
The U.S. is the world's largest pork exporter with Japan, Russia, Canada and Mexico generally the largest importers of U.S. pork. The U.S. Imports pork products, mostly from Canada and Denmark, the total of which is generally less than one billion pounds. The U.S. also imports live hogs from Canada.

Seasonal Nature:
Seasonal marketing pressure increases during March and persists at increased levels during all or part of April. The reason for this is that August and September farrowings are usually larger relative to other farrowing months. Slaughter levels decline seasonally from March - April into July or August. Thus, prices could generally be expected to rise from March to May and decline from May into August. [More]

 

Pork Bellies:

Market/Symbol:
Pork Bellies (PB)

Contract Months:
February, March, May, July, and August.

Exchange:
Chicago Mercantile Exch. (CME)

Trading Hours (ET):
8:10 am - 1:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
$400


Market Overview:
A single hog yields two pork bellies each of which can weigh between 12 and 14 pounds. In laymen terms, pork bellies are uncured beacon. Supplies of bellies accumulate from October through April. During this time there is a low demand for the product and high supply due to peak slaughter time. Bellies make their move during the summer months when demand picks up.

Demand for beacon is relatively stable, so its the supply side of the equation that typically effects the price of pork bellies. Traders watch the maturity of lean hogs to help determine appropriate supplies and in effect the price of bellies.

Seasonal Nature:
Typically, the pork belly market sees heavy selling by the start of May as doubts over inadequate supplies are cured. Seasonally the market bottoms out in July, but beware. Soon after hitting annual lows, belly prices bounce back with force, due to what traders in the belly pit call, the "BLT" season. The summer months mark the height of fast food consumption, and thus give massive support to the price of pork bellies. This trade is tricky, but if done correctly you can catch both the downswing and the up. Don't let your profits go "belly up" by holding on too long.

Other Factors:
When people find out that Landmark trades commodities they inevitably ask if we trade Pork Bellies. This is always followed with a grin and the statement "you know from that movie Trading Places."


>>> Click for a movie clip from Trading Places.


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Metals :

Copper:

Market/Symbol:
High Grade Copper (HG)

Contract Months:
Consecutive months

Exchange:
New York Mercantile Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
8:10 am - 1:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
$250


Market Overview:
The United States, Chile, Peru, South Africa, Zaire and Zambia are the largest producer of copper while the United States and Japan are the largest consumers of copper. High-grade copper is an excellent conductor of heat and electricity making it an important industrial metal. Copper is used in electric and electronic equipment, building construction and engine production. This industrial metal is a good leading indicator for the economy as demand will increase and decrease as housing starts and automobile inventories fluctuate. During strong economic periods there is an increased demand for new homes and cars, which in turn increases the demand for high grade copper. As the economic cycle turns down expect copper prices to quickly follow as inventories are cut back.

Seasonal Nature:
Copper follows the cycles of the housing and automobile industry. The combination of these two industries typically causes prices in copper to rise between February and April. Subsequently prices fall into late summer and early fall. [More]

Other Factors:
Copper is capable of generating prolonged trends making it a receptive market to trend trading systems. Because coppers is used in the housing industry keep a close eye on the lumber and interest rate futures.


Gold:

Market/Symbol:
Gold (GC)

Contract Months:
Consecutive Months

Exchange:
New York Mercantile Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
8:20 am - 1:30 pm
3 :15 pm - 8:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$250



Market Overview:
Gold is classified as a yellow metal with a variety of uses. Not only does it have excellent industrial properties, it also has been considered one of the safest places to hold your money in times of financial or political uncertainty. As an old saying says, "gold will always be gold."

Gold is a vital industrial commodity. It is an excellent conductor of electricity, is extremely resistant to corrosion, and is one of the most chemically stable of the elements, making it critically important in electronics and other high-tech applications. Gold's industrial uses include applications in the dentistry, space, defense, and electronic industries. Gold is primarily used, however, for jewelry and for the production of gold coins.

South Africa is the world's largest supplier of gold accounting for over 50%. Russia is the second largest producer, with Canada and the U.S. at third and fourth respectively.

Seasonal Nature:
From a seasonal perspective, the most likely times for a low in the gold price are July-August and October-November. The price of gold is dependent more upon its use as a medium of international exchange than for its industrial applications. Due to the importance of the US dollar in the global financial system, if the dollar is strong against most other currencies, it is usually strong against gold as well, and vice versa.

Political factors also affect the price of gold. Wars and political unrest in other parts of the world often strengthen gold against the dollar. Sales of gold by central banks increase the supply of gold on the market and therefore have a negative affect on its price. [More]

Other Factors:
Since gold is seen primarily as a financial vehicle, it is considered as an inflationary hedge. When inflation is high, interest rates are high, which will mean an increase in gold prices.


Silver:

Market/Symbol:
Silver (SI)

Contract Months:
Consecutive Months

Exchange:
New York Mercantile Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
8:25 am - 1:25 pm
3:15 pm - 8:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$250



Market Overview:
Silver, like gold is part of the "precious metal complex" and was once used primarily for its monetary value. Unlike gold, silver's price has become more dependent upon its industrial value rather than its monetary value. Silver's use in coins has been decreased greatly and its use as a financial backing has all but been eliminated.

Silver is used primarily for its industrial purposes and for the making of jewelry. It is a great conductor of electricity and has a high tolerance to heat and corrosion, making it valuable in such industries as photography (consuming about half of US silver production), communications, and computers. Silver is also used in the medical and dental fields as well as in the making of such things as batteries and mirrors.

Seasonal Nature:
Characteristically, the price of silver will decline during late spring and continue through the summer months due to decreased industrial productivity and easier transport of goods. Adding pressure to silver prices is the annual lull in the jewelry industry following Mother's Day (Early May for all of those who have forgotten). Most seasonal traders look to short the market during the third week of May as a point of reference. [More]

Other Factors:
Silver is a classic example of what is called a "carry basis" market, meaning the futures price of silver is almost exclusively tied to the supply and demand for spot silver and the cost of financing, storage, and insurance over the period until delivery of the futures contract. Supply factors include silver stocks and inventories held by suppliers and users of the metal, as well as the level of production world wide, political factors (i.e. labor strikes at producing mines).


Platinum and Paladium:

Market/Symbol:
Platinum (PL)
Palladium (PA)

Contract Months:
(PL) January, April, July, October.
(PA) March, June, September, December.

Exchange:
New York Mercantile Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
8:20 am - 1:05 pm
3 :15 pm - 8:00 am

Dollar Value per Point:
Platinum $100
Palladium $50



Market Overview:
Platinum is the principal metal of the six-metal group that bears its name; the other platinum group metals are palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, osmium, and iridium. All possess unique chemical and physical qualities that make them vital industrial materials.

As an example, rhodium is used in the automotive industry in pollution control devices. To some extent palladium has replaced rhodium. Iridium is used to process catalysts and it has also found use in some autocatalysts. Iridium and ruthenium are used in the production of polyvinyl chloride. As prices for these metals change, there is some substitution. The strength of platinum prices relative to palladium should lead to the substitution of palladium for platinum in catalytic converters. Palladium is less resistant than platinum is poisoning by sulfur and lead.

Platinum is among the world's scarcest metals; new mine production totals approximately only 5 million troy ounces a year. In contrast, gold mine production runs approximately 82 million ounces a year, and silver production is approximately 547 million ounces. Supplies of platinum are concentrated in South Africa, which accounts for approximately 80% of supply; Russia, 11%; and North America, 6%.

Palladium is a member of the platinum group metals (PGMs). It is mined with platinum, and resembles it in many respects, yet there are important differences between the two metals. Palladium is also produced as a byproduct of nickel mining. Russia supplies about 67% of production, South Africa, 23%; and North America, 8%. Annual production runs approximately 8.1 million ounces.

Other Factors:
Jewelry creates the largest demand for platinum, accounting for 51%. Automotive catalysts take 29% and chemical and petroleum refining catalysts, 13%. Platinum is used in the computer industry and in other high-tech electronic applications since it is an excellent conductor of electricity, does not corrode, and has a low reactivity with other metals. This sector accounts for about 7% of consumption.

At certain times when Platinum may be too expensive, so Palladium can be used as its replacement. The demand for Palladium in general is as follows 63% automotive catalysts, electronic equipment accounts for 21%; dental alloys, 12%; and jewelry, 4%.

Because of each of these metal's importance as an industrial material, their relatively low production, and concentration among a few suppliers, prices can be volatile.


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Industrial Metals:

Aluminum:

Market/Symbol:
Aluminum (LAH)

Contract Months:
Foward Month Trading

Exchange:
London Metal Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
6:55 am - 12:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
~$25.00

Market Overview:
Despite being the most prolific metal on earth, aluminum only began to be used extensively once an inexpensive method for distilling it by means of electrolytic reduction was discovered in the mid 19th century. It is extremely light, pliable, has high conductivity and is resistant to rust. Little wonder then that it has become the most extensively used metal and more recently the largest contract traded on the LME.

Aluminum is the most heavily produced and consumed non-ferrous metal in the world. Its low density and malleability has been recognized and championed by the industrial world. Aluminum has many diverse application, ranging form beverage cans to cars.

Lead:

Market/Symbol:
Lead (LAH)

Contract Months:
Foward Month Trading

Exchange:
London Metal Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
6:55 am - 12:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
~$25.00



Market Overview:
The uses of lead can be traced back to the earliest days of History. The Romans described it as the “basest of base metals” due to the ease with which it could be beaten or melted. In recent time lead has come into its own with the evolution of applications such as petrol additives, pigments, chemicals, crystal glass and batteries. The largest market for lead is in battery production, consuming approximately two thirds of the lead produced in the western world.

Lead's relationship with the LME began before the turn of the century, although dealings were unofficial. By 1903, it was being traded in a small secondary ring, but still without an official price setting. Lead was first officially traded in 1920 and the current standard lead contract, introduced in 1953, has become the mainstay for international free trade in this metal.

Being very soft and pliable and highly resistant to corrosion, Lead was ideal for use in plumbing as well as for the manufacture of pewter. In the early 20th century the automotive industry took off and new areas of consumption — batteries and petrol — created an enormous market. Storage batteries remain the main outlet but lead-free fuels have caused a decline in usage. Ironically, environmental issues have brought about new uses for the metal, particularly in the housing of power generation units to protect against electrical charges or dangerous radiations.

Nickel:

Market/Symbol:
Nickel (LAH)

Contract Months:
Foward Month Trading

Exchange:
London Metal Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
6:55 am - 12:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
~$6.00



Market Overview:
As an alloying metal, the uses of nickel are extraordinarily diverse. Its high melting point and resistance to corrosion have provided a wide scope for the metal's development. Early in the twentieth century, it was discovered that by combining nickel with steel, even in small quantities, led to a significant increase in the durability of the steel with regards to corrosion resistance and strength. This partnership has endured and the steel industry is now the single largest consumer of nickel today.

In the mid 18th century, primary nickel was first isolated as a separate metal. Prior to this, it was found in copper mines and thought to be an unsmeltable copper ore. Primary nickel can resist corrosion and maintains its physical and mechanical properties even when placed under extreme temperatures. When these properties were recognized, the development of primary nickel began. It was found that by combining primary nickel with steel, even in small quantities, the durability and strength of the steel increased significantly as did its resistance to corrosion. This partnership has remained and the production of stainless steel is now the single largest consumer of primary nickel today. This highly useful metal is also used in the production of many different metal alloys for specialized use.

Zinc:

Market/Symbol:
Zinc (LAH)

Contract Months:
Foward Month Trading

Exchange:
London Metal Exchange

Trading Hours (ET):
6:55 am - 12:00 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
~$25.00



Market Overview:
Zinc is the fourth most widely used metal in the world. Its resistance to non-acidic atmospheric corrosion means that zinc is instrumental in prolonging the life of buildings, vehicles, ships and steel goods and structures of every kind. Accordingly, galvanizing accounts for more than half of all present day applications of metal, and this figure is increasing.

Zinc is commonly mined as a co-product with standard lead and both metals have growing core markets for their consumption. For zinc, the main market is galvanizing, which accounts for almost half its modern-day demand. Zinc's electropositive nature enables metals to be readily galvanized, which gives added protection against corrosion to building structures, vehicles, machinery and household equipment.

Zinc was traded unofficially on the LME from the outset when the Exchange was established in 1877 and became an official contract in 1915. The LME is the only international exchange to trade zinc and by the 1980s the volume of contracts traded on the LME led the international zinc industry to recognize the Exchange as the reference point for pricing physical contracts. With this development the Exchange became an even more appropriate venue for metal price risk management, a fact clearly reflected by a major growth in turnover.

 

Softs :

Cocoa:

Market/Symbol:
Cocoa (CC)

Contract Months:
March, May, July, September and December

Exchange:
New York Board of Trade (NYBT)

Trading Hours (ET):
8:00 am - 11:50 am

Dollar Value per Point:
$10



Market Overview:
Cocoa is an ancient crop grown in tropical climates. The major produces can be found in the Ivory Cost, Ghana, Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil, Cameroon, and Malaysia. Approximately 98% of all cocoa goes into the production of chocolate and chocolate related products. Considered a luxury item Cocoa is consumed mainly in the United States and Europe. Since Cocoa is grown in remote areas of the world and consumed elsewhere its price is heavily influenced by transportation costs, U.S. Dollar direction and inventory levels.

Seasonal Nature:
The yearly seasonal low tends to occur in January with the Bahia (Brazil) main crop, rather than in May or June with the Temporao (Brazil) crop, because of consumer demand. Consumer demand tends to rise into late fall and early winter, which boosts prices during that time frame. As demand peaks and then begins to decline, cocoa prices fall into January. It's important to note that seasonal tendencies in cocoa are not very strong. [More]


Cotton:

Market/Symbol:
Cotton (CT)

Contract Months:
March, May, July, October and December

Exchange:
New York Board of Trade (NYBT)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:30 am - 2:15 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
$500




Market Overview:
Cotton is produced across the world with the United States and Russian Republics the leading producers. The United States is the largest consumer of cotton with the bulk of supplies used in the apparel business. The US also exports a large portion of its cotton production to the rest of the world especially in the first quarter. The planting of cotton typically takes place in April with harvesting mainly done in October or November.

Seasonal Nature:
Supplies peak in fall as the new crop is harvested and then tapers off into spring. With all things equal cotton prices should then reach higher levels in the spring when inventories are at the lowest point. US and foreign governments may also influence cotton prices therefore the normal supply and demand cycles can easily be distorted. [More]

 

Coffee:

Market/Symbol:
Coffee (KC)
London Coffee (CF)

Contract Months:
March, May, July, September and December

Exchange:
New York Board of Trade (NYBT)

Trading Hours (ET):
(KC) 9:15 am - 12:30 pm
(CF) 4:40 am - 11:55 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
$375




Market Overview:
Coffee is classified into two types - arabica and robusta. Arabica coffees, which make up the bulk of world production, are grown mainly in the tropical highlands of the Western Hemisphere, are more flavorful and are used to produce higher quality coffee. Robusta coffees are produced largely in the low, hot areas of Africa and Asia. Their flavors are less mild than the arabica coffees and are therefore used in lesser quality coffees (such as instant). Its important to distinguish between the two coffee types since A rabica coffee is traded at the New York Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange a sub division of the New York Board of Trade (NYBT) while Robusta coffee is traded at the London Exchange. Our focus will center on Arabica coffee.

The United States is the largest consumer of coffee. Coffee is certainly a weather market as it is easily influenced by temperature and drought. A rabica coffee grown in Latin America (Southern Hemisphere) may be damaged by winter frost in June and July. Coffee may also be influenced by drought during the growing season in late September and October.

Seasonal Nature:
The frost season in Brazil occurs during the May through early-August period. In anticipation of this frost, prices tend to rise from January into June. This seasonal tendency is not very strong, however, because coffee can come from other producing countries, such as Mexico. Still, the potential for a Brazilian frost should be monitored. The other seasonal influence is during the winter, when U.S. coffee consumption tends to rise. [More]

Other Factors:
Coffee is prone to sharp price movements during periods of frost and drought.


Lumber:

Market/Symbol:
Lumber (LB)

Contract Months:
January, March, May, July, September, November.

Exchange:
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:00 am - 2:05 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
$110




Market Overview:
The bulk of lumber produced in the United States comes from the Oregon, Washington and Northern California area. Douglas Fir is the tree of choice when referring to lumber. It is used primarily in the construction of new homes across the country. A thinly traded market add lumber into portfolios in moderation.

Seasonal Nature:
Lumber has a cyclical nature as it hits price lows at the end of the harvest season. Inventories are highest at the sawmills at that time resulting in an increased supply and low price levels. Price levels are typically at their highest levels in spring, as the home building season gets under way. [More]

Other Factors:
Demand for lumber is heavily influenced by housing starts, interest rates and weather. The effect of weather is not based on the growth of the trees but rather on the efficiency of logging the trees and the building of homes. Nice weather makes it easier to both log the lumber and use it in the building process.


Orange Juice:

Market/Symbol:
Orange Juice (OJ)

Contract Months:
January, March, May, July, September, November.

Exchange:
New York Board of Trade (NYBT)

Trading Hours (ET):
10:15 am - 2:15 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
$150





Market Overview:
Orange crops are grown throughout out the world with Brazil and the United States being the leading producers. Brazil actually passed the U.S. in recent years as the worlds leader. Within the U.S. Florida leads the way with 75% of its orange crop is processed into Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (i.e FCOJ). Harvest periods for O.J. runs during the month of January and the mid-April to mid-June period. As a weather market O.J. Is susceptible to low temperatures. Specifically 28 degrees Ferenheit will effect the orange crop while temperatures below 25 degrees can damage the orange tree itself.

Seasonal Nature:
Seasonal price movement of FCOJ does not usually reflect the December-February freeze period in the southern U.S. Seasonal tendencies are caused by harvest, production (also called "pack") and demand ("movement"). The most significant seasonal move in O.J. Is that prices generally fall from November to January.

Other Factors:
In the movie Trading Places, Winthorpe (Dan Aykroyd) and Valentine (Eddie Murphy), make a killing in FCOJ. In the real world this would never happen, so as traders we have put together a small list of screen errors to put Hollywood in its place.

>>> Click for the list of errors in the movie Trading Places.


Sugar:

Market/Symbol:
Sugar #14 (SB)
Sugar #5 London (QW)

Contract Months:
January, March, May, July, September, November.

Exchange:
Sugar #14 (NYBT)
Sugar #5 (LCE)

Trading Hours (ET):
(SB) 9:00 am - 12:00 pm
(QW) 4:45 am - 12:30 pm

Dollar Value per Point:
(SB) $1120





Market Overview:
Sugar, or sucrose, is produced from both sugarcane and sugar beets. Although the growing regions, maturity duration and processing techniques are different for the two, they both produce refined sugars that are indistinguishable from each other.

Cane sugar accounts for about 60% of the worlds production and its literally grown around the world in Brazil, Europe, India United States and China. This perennial crop follows an 18-month growing cycle. Sugar beets account for the other 40% of world production. The European community primarily produce beat sugar which follows a more traditional planting cycle, spring to fall. Estimates on cane sugar is more predictable due to growing season, so its the sugar beat crop that can influence supply figures and ultimately accounts for most price fluctuations in sugar.

Seasonal Nature:
The seasonal pattern looks for low around September and a high in January or February. The cycles for Sugar are erratic at best similar to Coffee as both markets can be characterized by extreme sharp but short-lived upside bursts, followed by extended periods of dormancy at depressed levels. [More]

Other Factors:
Both cane and beet sugar produce identical sweeteners. Sugar however is traded on two different exchanges. Sugar #14 (i.e. Raw Sugar ) is unrefined and trades at the New York Board of Trade (NYBT). Sugar #5 (i.e. White Sugar ) is refined and trades at the London Commodity Exchange (LCE).



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